Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 29 2021 - 12Z Tue Feb 02 2021
...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was derived from
reasonably well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models Friday into the weekend along with
the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. Increasingly adjusted blend
focus from the models to the compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means
onward into early next week amid growing forecast spread. This
maintains good WPC product continuity.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A gradually weakening Bering Sea storm will approach
West/Southwest Alaska into Friday to offer an enhanced snow risk.
Ample downstream energy transfers will meanwhile favor well
organized maritime low redevelopment and digging over the Gulf of
Alaska into the weekend. An amplified upper ridge will meanwhile
build upstream back over the Bering Sea in response to further
upstream low genesis whose enhanced circulation seems slated to
effect the Aleutians then southern Bering Sea this weekend into
early next week. Forecast spread is less than stellar in Arctic
stream flow rounding the top of the aforementioned Bering Sea
ridge, but ridge position should allow a good channel for upper
low/trough energies/height falls to dig down over a
cooling/unsettling and locally snowy North Slope and Interior.
Phasing of this stream into the Gulf of Alaska early next week
could enhance maritime low developments.
Schichtel
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html