Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Feb 05 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... An upper level ridge that will initially be in place across western Alaska and the western Gulf of Alaska on Monday will gradually be suppressed over the northeastern Pacific by the middle of the week. By the end of the forecast period, a rather pronounced upper level trough and large surface low becomes established over the western Aleutians/western Bering with some lead shortwave energy lifting northeastward ahead of it. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from the 12Z CMC/00Z ECMWF with some of their respective means as a starting point in the forecast for fronts and pressures, and slightly less weighting towards the 12Z GFS since it was a bit more progressive with the surface low crossing the northern Gulf region compared to the other guidance. For next Thursday and Friday, there was a gradual increase in using the CMCE/ECMWF ensemble means due to increasing deterministic model spread. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The next storm approaching from the western Aleutians early next week is expected to produce moderate precipitation and gusty winds across the Aleutians through Tuesday evening, and then likely reaching the southern mainland by the middle of next week as the low emerges over the northern Gulf. It appears that the moisture plume will be progressive enough to keep things from getting too heavy or persistent. For the Interior region and the northern tier, most of the forecast period should be dry and frigid with perhaps a few light snow showers. Overall temperatures are expected to be below normal for much of the forecast period, with some minus 40 degree readings likely for the normally colder locations! Another round of precipitation may affect the Aleutians and southwestern Alaska by the end of the week as the next storm system approaches the region. Hamrick Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html