Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 620 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 02 2021 - 12Z Sat Feb 06 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Punctuated upper ridging will linger over the northeastern Pacific next week as troughing remains in the Bering Sea. Split flow across the Dateline will keep a southern upper low well south of the region in the mid-latitudes. This will keep the storm track largely through the Bering and Gulf as systems try to thread the needle between positive anomaly centers in the Arctic and Gulf/NE Pac. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF paired rather well with their ensemble means overall, with some agreement from the UKMET/Canadian early in the period (Tue-Wed) before differences south of the AKPen increased. The parallel GFS differed much more to the south, bringing the southern upper low northward to the Aleutians when the ensembles showed mostly high pressure. By the end of the period, the models/ensembles showed more timing differences off eastern Asia into the western Bering with another system, so trended toward the ensemble mean consensus positions for now. Overall this maintained good continuity from the forecast yesterday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation across the northern Gulf/southern mainland next week will generally be on the light to modest side, perhaps enhanced by weaker areas of low pressure into the Panhandle. By next Thu-Fri, system into the eastern Bering will spread snow across the Interior as its old triple point weakens but carries moisture eastward. Differences exist in how much (and when) will be realized north of the Alaska Range (GFS wetter earlier, but ECMWF wetter later) as another system late Fri will spread its moisture eastward as well. For now, a middle ground solution yields a modest snowfall for Interior locations at least along the west coast of Alaska. Temperatures will trend milder than normal through the Tue-Fri period, limiting the below normal temperatures to the Panhandle and far northeastern areas. Fracasso Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html