Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EST Wed Feb 03 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 07 2021 - 12Z Thu Feb 11 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... An upper level low that is expected to initially be over far northwestern Canada on Sunday is expected to slowly settle in over central and northern Alaska by the middle to end of next week. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge axis will likely exist across the Aleutians and Bering Sea region. Surface low pressure is expected to persist over the norther Gulf of Alaska with multiple shortwaves pivoting around the main upper low over the mainland. The 12Z CMC take the upper low farther south across the Interior region, whilst the 18Z GFS/GEFS mean keep the low just north of the Arctic Coast. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Persistent low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will tend to focus periods of precipitation over the southeastern coast and Panhandle through the period. A leading wave arriving by the start of the weekend should provide the initial push of moisture with moderate totals expected. After the weekend there is increasing uncertainty over precipitation intensity over this area, depending on specifics of the upper low/trough that may move into the mainland. Current guidance preferences would yield light-moderate activity most of the time but an upper flow orientation that could bring greater moisture into the region is a lower-probability but possible scenario. One or more features lifting up the western side of upper ridging may support episodes of precipitation/brisk winds over portions of the Aleutians and southwestern half of the Bering Sea. The weekend will start with above normal temperatures over southern/western areas and below normal readings to the north/east. Then a colder trend from north to south will likely yield below to well below normal readings over much of the state during the first half of next week. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 8-Feb 9. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html