Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 727 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 8 2021 - 12Z Fri Feb 12 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... An upper level low that is expected to initially be over far northwestern Canada on Sunday is expected to slowly settle in over central and northern Alaska by the middle to end of next week. This will tend to set up a block pattern across the Alaska region for the medium range period. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge axis will likely exist across the Aleutians and Bering Sea region. Surface low pressure is expected to persist over the norther Gulf of Alaska with multiple shortwaves pivoting around the main upper low over the mainland. The 12Z CMC takes the upper low farther south across the Interior region, whilst the 18Z GFS/GEFS mean keep the low just north of the Arctic Coast. Elsewhere, there are modest model differences with the overall synoptic scale pattern, and incorporating the CMC/ECMWF/GFS along with some of the ensemble means served as a good starting point, along with some of yesterday's continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Persistent low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will tend to focus periods of precipitation across the southeastern coast and the southeastern Panhandle through the upcoming week. There is increasing uncertainty over precipitation intensity over this area, depending on specifics of the upper low/trough that moves across the mainland. Current guidance preferences would yield light-moderate activity for most of this time period. One or more features lifting up the western side of upper ridging may support episodes of precipitation/brisk winds over portions of the Aleutians and southwestern half of the Bering Sea. In terms of temperatures, it will likely be bitterly cold across much of central and northern Alaska with widespread 30 below readings expected north of the Alaska Range. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Wed, Feb 6-Feb 10. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html