Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 PM EST Sun Feb 07 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 11 2021 - 12Z Mon Feb 15 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... A deep upper level low is expected to be in place northwest of the Arctic Coast on Thursday. With this low lifting northward over the Arctic Ocean by the weekend, a ridge axis is expected to build in over the state from the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a stormy weather pattern appears likely across the southern Bering Sea and the Aleutians as a couple of Pacific storm systems pass through that region as they rotate around a broader upper level gyre. The model guidance has come into better synoptic scale agreement compared to yesterday, with the greatest model differences related to the evolution of the mid-upper level ridge over the mainland, and the individual shortwaves pivoting around the main upper level low over the western Aleutians. There was a slightly greater weighting towards the 12Z ECMWF/00Z EC mean as a starting point in the forecast process, along with some of the 12Z GFS/CMC. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The frigid temperatures during the short range forecast period are forecast to moderate by Thursday as the potent upper level and arctic surface high retreat, and broad upper level ridging builds back in across the state. The coldest readings will likely be across eastern portions of the Interior, while warm air advection is more pronounced over the western half of the state. Periods of coastal rain and mountain snow are likely from the Kenai Peninsula to the Fox Islands, and there is a decent model signal for 1 to 3 inch QPF here during this forecast period. Elsewhere, some snow showers are possible across the northwestern quadrant of the state owing to the warm air advection, and periods of strong winds are likely for much of the Aleutians and the Bering Sea region as an unsettled weather pattern sets in with a couple of low pressure systems. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html