Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 557 PM EST Mon Feb 08 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 12 2021 - 12Z Tue Feb 16 2021 ...Guidance/Uncertainty and Weather/Hazards Assessments... A mean ridge axis is slated to build in over the state from the northeast Pacific in a generally moderating pattern. Meanwhile, a stormy weather pattern focus is likely across the southern Bering Sea and the Aleutians as a couple of Pacific storm systems pass through that region as they rotate with a broader upper level gyre. Timing issues remain, but system potential is heightened for these main lows whose wrapping flow will threaten the Aleutians and the AKPen/Kodiak and vicinity Friday and the weekend. Additional system activity to the east seems more modest/offshore out over the Gulf of Alaska for the next week. 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF solution are well clustered enough that a blend seems to offer a decent forecast for day 4/Friday. Model forecast spread increases quickly from the weekend into next week. Predictability decreases, but the mainly compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seemingly then provide a reasonable larger scale flow evolution. Accordingly, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of these ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models to maintain max WPC continuity. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Feb 11. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html