Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 526 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 14 2021 - 12Z Thu Feb 18 2021 ...Guidance/Uncertainty and Weather/Hazards Assessments... Cooling Arctic trough energies in mainly dry flow are slated to dig over the North Slope and into the Interior next week, increasingly through an ambient upper ridge. Meanwhile, a stormy weather pattern focus will remain across the southern Bering Sea and the Aleutians as a series of Pacific storm systems work through the region, rotating within a broader upper level trough position. System potential remains heightened for these deep lows whose wrapping flow will threaten the Aleutians and the AKPen/Kodiak and Southwest Alaska next week. Additional maritime system activity to the east seems more modest or at least less certain over the Gulf of Alaska next week, but the flow could eventually bring some organized system focusing precipitation onshore downstream into southern and southeast Alaska. Prior to this, expect much below normal temperatures in a post-frontal flow environment for the interior Southeast Panhandle on the Feb 13-14 weekend. 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means are reasonably clustered so a blend seems to offer a decent forecast for day 4-6/Sun-Tue consistent with a pattern with average predictability. Forecast spread increases day 7/8 when the compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means still provide a reasonable larger scale flow evolution. Schichtel Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures for the interior Southeast Panhandle on Saturday Feb 13 and Sunday Feb 14. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html