Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 19 2021 - 12Z Tue Feb 23 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Latest model and ensemble guidance shows an area of upper level troughing with potential for multiple embedded closed lows within an area extending from northern Alaska to the northern half of Alaska. Relatively progressive flow should prevail across the North Pacific, and this flow will likely carry multiple waves of low pressure along the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska. The pattern aloft over the mainland will favor the persistence of generally lower pressures over the Gulf of Alaska, with corresponding precipitation focusing along the southeastern coast and Panhandle region. For most forecast specifics, guidance has been sufficiently diverse and variable to recommend a 12Z operational model blend for about the first half of the period, and then roughly 2/3rds of the EC/NAEFS means as individual solutions increasingly diverge. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The overall pattern will favor precipitation over the southeastern coast and Panhandle during much of the forecast period, with the best potential for the heaviest precipitation late Friday through Saturday night. Multiple rounds of showers and gusty winds are likely for the Aleutians as multiple waves of low pressure pass through this region. Most of the Panhandle should see below normal temperatures during most of the forecast period. Across the mainland, expect the start of the period to feature below normal readings over the North Slope and far west, while remaining areas will likely be near to slightly above normal. With time expect a colder trend that will steadily expand the coverage of below normal anomalies, reaching nearly the entire state by the beginning of next week. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of southern Alaska, Thu, Feb 18. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Feb 21-Feb 22. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html