Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 520 PM EST Sat Mar 06 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 10 2021 - 12Z Sun Mar 14 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... An upper low near the East Siberian Sea will drift northward toward the Pole with quasi-zonal flow underneath it across the North Pacific/Aleutians. The flow has lingering potential to become unstable, leading to wave-breaking and a closed low (or two) across the mid-latitudes, but should otherwise remain mostly west-to-east along 50N. Consensus has drifted toward a less-developed system into the Gulf Thu by way of differing northern vs southern stream speeds. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF were comparable enough toward a bit quicker evolution to use as a base, even though the ECMWF ensemble mean was still quite slow/developed. Felt the deterministic models may be leading the ensembles a bit, but at least the 12Z Canadian ensemble mean was in line with the GFS/ECMWF as the system moves into the Panhandle early Fri. To the west, uncertainty increases with the details of the Bering system but a consensus/ensemble blend sufficed. Amplifying trough/ridge pattern may slow the system into western Alaska next weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... High pressure will settle into the Interior and Southcentral Thu-Sat with colder temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. Gulf system will track to its southeast bringing the bulk of the rain/snow to the central/southern Panhandle. Next system in the Bering will bring windy conditions and some rain/snow to the islands as the parent low stays well northwest toward northeastern Russia. Milder temperatures will precede the Bering system on southerly flow from west to east next weekend, but the Panhandle and southeastern areas will see below normal temperatures as the surface high drifts into NW Canada. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html