Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 28 2021 - 12Z Sun May 2 2021
...Model Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
The latest model guidance showed fairly good agreement and
predictability for the beginning of the forecast period. The main
difference noted in the guidance was the latitudinal placement of
the upper low near the Aleutians/northern Gulf region towards next
weekend. The CMC takes the low farther north across the Bering
Sea, whereas the GFS is much more suppressed with the storm system
across the Gulf. The WPC blend leaned toward the better clustered
12Z ECMWF/CMC/EC mean for the Friday through Sunday time period.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The majority of the state should remain dry through most of the
forecast period, with perhaps some isolated showers across
portions of the Interior. The exception will be from the Alaska
Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle region, where low pressure
lifting northward across the Gulf of Alaska is expected to advect
higher moisture into the area. With better forcing and dynamics,
widespread precipitation is likely. No significant temperature
anomalies are forecast during this forecast period.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html