Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 528 PM EDT Fri May 07 2021 Valid 12Z Tue May 11 2021 - 12Z Sat May 15 2021 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance offers a reasonably similar larger scale pattern evolution over medium range time scales, but still shows differences with small-mid scale embedded weather systems, especially aloft. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are best clustered days 4-8 and a composite with compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models seems to produce a good forecast basis consistent with a pattern with slightly above normal predictability. This forecast plan maintains great WPC product continuity. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Lead upper trough energies and moderate precipitation focusing surface lows/frontal weather systems will work from the Aleutians and the Alaskan Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska and toward southern/southeastern Alaska early-mid next week, undercutting a warming/stabilizing mainland mean upper ridge. Then upstream, amplified/closed upper trough energy is slated to track over the southern Bering Sea/Aleutians mid-later next week and deepening low pressure could support increasingly unsettled maritime conditions and inland feeding enhanced rains and winds across the region, then downstream in earnest into the Alaskan Peninsula/Southwest Alaska/southern Alaska heading into next weekend. Guidance signal for this low increased over the past few days, bolstering threat potential. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html