Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 709 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 Valid 12Z Sat May 15 2021 - 12Z Wed May 19 2021 ...Overview... Upper ridging will build across the Arctic/North Pole and the mid-latitude western and eastern Pacific during the period as blocky flow tends to unwind a bit over Alaska. The pattern next week favors low pressure mostly over the northern Pacific into the Gulf, with a storm track suppressed around 50N. Appreciable precipitation will be limited to the Panhandle. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models and ensembles were in fair agreement overall but differed starting mostly by Sunday. The 12Z ECMWF paired best with the ensemble means, varying between its own mean and the 12Z GEFS/Canadian ensemble means. The UKMET and Canadian offered varying amounts of agreement as well with the smaller embedded features, followed by the GFS. The GFS failed to carry a small closed low (currently over Siberia) across northern Kamchatka and maintain its identity as it slips southeastward, eventually merging with an incoming Pacific system early next week. Though the GFS may not be wrong, its lack of this feature modifies the timing of the pattern downstream and became out of phase at times with the consensus. Used a majority ECMWF weighting for details along with a blend of the ensemble means which differed on timing of the Mon-Wed system. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Lead system on Saturday will feature waning precipitation over the Aleutians and southwestern areas as the old parent low dissipates, with a focus into the Panhandle near the new triple point. Progressive pace will limit amounts to mostly light to moderate in some areas. Surface trough over the interior next week may help instigate afternoon showers in an otherwise dry pattern. Next system over the Pacific may be far enough offshore to limit any significant precipitation to the middle of next week, depending on its track/speed. Temperatures will be within several degrees of normal over much of the state, but near to below normal over the Panhandle. Fracasso Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html