Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 710 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Mon Jul 05 2021 ...Unsettled weather expected from portions of the Aleutians to the South-Central Coast... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Evaluation... The latest models and ensembles continue to advertise a large deep cyclone will wobble between the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. Eastward progress should be halted by an upper level ridge axis over eastern mainland Alaska and western Canada. There's a bit of dispersion amongst the guidance concerning shortwaves moving around the southeast and east side of the cyclone towards southeast AK and western Canada, with the 12z GFS strongest and the most northerly and other guidance more southerly. The ensemble means showed dispersion as well, with the 00z NAEFS mean extremely elongated and weak, implying a great deal of spread in its Canadian and NCEP ensemble members, making it less useful. The 12z GEFS mean followed its operation solution. The apex of the ridge in the Arctic Ocean argues for a solution south of the 12z GFS with the shortwave, more in line with the 12z ECMWF. From Thursday into Saturday, a compromise of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF was reasonable. Thereafter, used a compromise of the 12z ECMWF and its ensemble mean. Compared to continuity, this slowed frontal progression to the east and delayed/lowered rain chances for the AK Panhandle, which was coordinated with the AJK/Juneau forecast office. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... The Aleutians into the AK Peninsula and Kodiak Island are expected to produce periods of showers and gusty winds, with some heavy rainfall. As upper level ridging remains fairly persistent across eastern AK, east-central AK should be warmest with highs in the 70s and 80s, with slightly cooler conditions for the Panhandle. South-Central Alaska and back to the Aleutians should remain near or below normal temperature wise underneath mostly cloudy skies. Roth Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html