Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 - 12Z Tue Jul 06 2021 ...Unsettled weather expected from portions of the Aleutians to the South-Central Coast... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Evaluation... The extended range begins Friday with an initially deep upper low lifting north over the AK Pen region, and weakening into the Bering Sea. This occurs as the next upper low deepens and drops south into the western Aleutians. Eastward progress of these lows should be halted by an upper level ridge axis over eastern Alaska and western Canada. There continues to be some bit of dispersion amongst the guidance concerning a few shortwaves rounding the base of the mean trough with the 12z GFS the strongest with one such wave entering the Gulf early next week and low pressure swinging into southern Alaska. The deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC plus the means, created a good starting point for early in the period. Thereafter, removed the 12z GFS in favor of more of the ensemble means which are a good middle ground solution with some placement issues on the next Bering Sea closed low days 6 and 7. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Unsettled weather will continue into Friday from eastern parts of the Aleutians into the AK Peninsula and Kodiak island with periods of showers, some locally moderate to heavy, and gusty winds as a frontal boundary moves into and weakens across the region. Moisture should also extend northward into parts of the western mainland bringing rainfall to the region during the weekend, though placement of any potential heavy rainfall remains uncertain. As upper level ridging remains fairly persistent across eastern Alaska, especially the first half of the period, east-central AK should be the warmest with highs in the 70s and 80s. Elsewhere across Alaska should be near or below normal underneath mostly cloudy skies and mean upper level troughing. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html