Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 14 2021 - 12Z Sat Sep 18 2021 ...Pattern Overview and Model Guidance... The strong storm system with the heavy rain and gusty winds is forecast to abate in intensity by Tuesday over western Alaska. However, the Aleutians and Gulf region is still expected to have a rather active weather pattern going through the middle to end of the week with another strong system tracking from the southern Bering to the northern Gulf, with perhaps a third system tracking eastward in its wake. There is a slight improvement in the 12Z deterministic model guidance, although some noteworthy timing differences remain regarding the Bering Sea system by Thursday. The ECENS mean is initially more progressive and ahead of the CMC/GFS/ECMWF, before becoming more in line with these solutions by Friday. The operational ECMWF is still more amplified with the surface low and upper level features, but not to the same level as yesterday and still has some ensemble support. The WPC fronts/pressures forecast is primarily derived from a GFS/CMC/ECMWF/WPC continuity blend for days 4 through 6, and then more of the GEFS and EC means for Friday and Saturday. ...Sensible Weather... Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the next low crossing the northern Gulf mid-late next week, another episode of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely from the Alaska Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle, although confidence in placement of QPF maxima is limited at this time. Some strong winds are also possible for portions of the Aleutians and coastal southern Alaska. Light precipitation is likely across portions of western Alaska as a frontal boundary approaches the region from the northwest. In the temperature department, expect readings to be near to slightly above normal across much of the Interior, with cooler weather arriving by the end of next week. Below average temperatures appear favored for southeastern Alaska and into the panhandle region. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Sep 13. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Sep 13. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html