Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 15 2021 - 12Z Sun Sep 19 2021 ...Pattern Overview and Model Guidance... The strong storm system with the heavy rain and gusty winds during the short range forecast period is forecast to abate in intensity by Tuesday over western Alaska. However, the Aleutians and Gulf region is still expected to have a rather active weather pattern going through the middle to end of the week with another strong system tracking from the southern Bering to the northern Gulf. A third system is likely to be tracking eastward in its wake, although the intensity is expected to be weaker. Some noteworthy timing differences remain regarding the Bering Sea system for the middle of the week. The GFS is slower than the model consensus with the low and is not favored for Wednesday and Thursday, but it is more in line with the other guidance later in the forecast period with this feature. The ECMWF and its mean are faster, with the UKMET serving as a good middle ground solution. By the end of the forecast period, the CMC becomes out of phase across the Gulf region and loses ensemble support, so it was not incorporated for next weekend. ...Sensible Weather... Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the next low crossing the northern Gulf mid-late next week, another episode of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely from the Alaska Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle, although confidence in placement of QPF maxima is limited at this time. Some strong winds are also possible for portions of the Aleutians and coastal southern Alaska. Light precipitation is likely across portions of western Alaska as a frontal boundary approaches the region from the northwest. In the temperature department, expect readings to be near to slightly above normal across much of the Interior, with cooler weather arriving by next weekend as the cold front settles southward from the Arctic. Below average temperatures appear favored for southeastern Alaska and into the panhandle region with increased cloud cover and frequent showers.. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html