Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 626 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 03 2021 - 12Z Thu Oct 07 2021 ...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... An active weather pattern can be expected during the extended forecast period across the Alaska domain with two large storm systems. The first will be a weakening low over the northern Gulf this weekend, followed by a ridge axis building in from the north Pacific. The second system will be the extratropical version of what is now Typhoon Mindulle and this is forecast to cross the Bering early next week, with a trailing low likely behind this along with a reinforcing cold front. Model guidance is initially well clustered with the Gulf system for the weekend and also for the arriving extratropical low through Monday night. The CMC is stronger and faster with a cold front south of the Aleutians by Tuesday, whilst still comparable with the parent surface low over the Bering. By the end of the forecast period next Thursday, there is considerable model spread regarding a potential triple point low forming over the Gulf region, so leaning more towards the ensemble means seems prudent for days 7 and 8. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The heavy precipitation associated with the weakening Gulf low is forecast to abate in intensity by Sunday morning across the Panhandle region, although gusty onshore winds are likely to persist until Sunday night when the pressure gradient lessens further. A period of dry weather can be expected for most of the state on Monday before precipitation associated with the Bering Sea storm arrives across western Alaska by Tuesday. The main concern will be strong winds and very rough seas across the Aleutians and extending up the Alaska coast towards Nome. Moderate to heavy snow can be expected for portions of the Interior by the middle of next week as the moisture surge moves inland. Temperatures are expected to initially be quite chilly for most of the state through Tuesday before a slight moderating trend ensues ahead of the Bering Sea storm system across the western half of the state. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat, Oct 2. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat, Oct 2. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Oct 4-Oct 5. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html