Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 704 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 02 2021 - 12Z Sat Nov 06 2021 ...A stormy pattern for Alaska continues next week... ...Overview and Model Guidance... A stormy weather pattern with potent offshore storms will continue to affect portions of Alaska next week. The flow will feature several potent Bering Sea, Arctic, and Gulf of Alaskan surface lows rotating within energetic/closed mean upper troughs over these areas and around the periphery of an amplified western Canada to Interior mean upper ridge. Guidance continuity and variance with embedded features is not stellar throughout medium range time scales, but a blend of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF with the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means (that do have compatible larger scale pattern evolutions) and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models (except QPF/PoPs) does offer a seemingly reasonable solution that maintains decent WPC product continuity when weighting shifts increasingly from the higher resolution models that offer more detail consistent with higher predictability for days 4/5 (Tuesday/Wednesday) and then quickly shifting main focus to the ensemble means as predictability quickly decreases into days 6-8 (Thursday-next Saturday). ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... A lead storm system is expected to wrap into the northwest Gulf of Alaska Tuesday and then weaken around the periphery of the Interior upper ridge. There is some threat for high waves/winds, with heavy precipitation spreading into southern Alaska. Some activity will then shear northward to bring a more modest weather focus into western Alaska. On the heels of this system, a moist extratropical low associated with current western Pacific Tropical Storm Malou should meanwhile lift into the eastern then northern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday past midweek. This offers another threat for high winds/waves as heavy precipitation works inland from southeast through southern Alaska and possibly into the AKpen and Kodiak Island. Additional storm systems will also through this period work over the Bering Sea as a maritime threat and also spread enhanced winds/precipitation across the region and into western Alaska mainly early-mid week. Energy refresh into the Gulf of Alaska later next week into next weekend is less predictable for individual systems, but seemingly still potent, presenting a continued favorable environment for new and ample storm genesis under and around an amplified/closed upper trough position. In terms of temperatures, most locations across central and eastern portions of the mainland should enjoy above normal readings next week under the amplified and stabilizing upper ridge, with some areas up to 20 degrees above normal. However, readings should be closer to normal or perhaps slightly below for the western portion of the mainland, the Aleutians and the Southeast Panhandle. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 1-Nov 2. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Nov 3-Nov 4. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html