Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 758 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 6 2021 - 12Z Wed Nov 10 2021 ...Overview and Model Guidance... Offshore storms will mainly affect coastal Alaska during this forecast period. The flow will feature some potent Gulf of Alaska lows rotating around a closed upper trough and as escaping Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaskan impulses lift around the western periphery of an amplified but slowly weakening western Canada to Alaskan Interior upper ridge. In terms of the model guidance, the 12Z UKMET appeared closest to the ensemble means with respect to the closed upper low over the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend, so this model was weighted a bit more through Day 5. The CMC strayed from the consensus by having the low well to the north and closer to the coast, and the GFS a bit to the south of the ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... A compact and moist extratropical low associated with former Typhoon Malou is expected to lift from the eastern to northern Gulf of Alaska Friday/Saturday and offer some focus for enhanced precipitation into Southeast to south-central coastal Alaska. Meanwhile, Bering Sea systems will combine with energies lifting on the western periphery of an amplified Interior upper ridge position to focus periods of enhanced precipitation into western Alaska. In this pattern, the central and eastern Interior through the North Slope should enjoy much above normal readings through the weekend with some readings more than 20 degrees above normal before moderating into next week. Meanwhile, deep energy digging underneath into the Gulf of Alaska late week into early next week will present a favorable environment for offshore storm genesis with amplified/closed upper trough development to present a periodic maritime and southern/southeastern coastal tier threat. However, particular deep storm depiction at these longer time frames remains uncertain given run to run guidance variance and limited ensemble clustering. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html