Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 608 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 7 2021 - 12Z Thu Nov 11 2021 ...Overview and Model Guidance... A large upper level gyre is expected to be in place across the Gulf of Alaska this weekend along with a upper ridge axis over the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. By Tuesday, more shortwaves track south of the Aleutians and south of the Bering/western Alaska ridge, and this should evolve into a broad upper trough over western Alaska and the Gulf region by the middle to end of next week with upper level ridging returning to the western Aleutians. The 12Z deterministic guidance is in relatively good agreement on the synoptic scale this weekend and have a good depiction of the Gulf upper level gyre. This includes the CMC which has trended much closer to the model consensus compared to yesterday. The UKMET is displaced some to the northwest by Monday night with that same upper low and becomes less favored in the forecast blend. By the end of the forecast period, the CMC has a stronger shortwave crossing the Bering whereas the ensemble means are suggesting a well developed ridge across this region, so less of it was applied for days 7 and 8. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Overall, the Alaska region should be relatively quiet in terms of impactful precipitation events with most of the mainland staying dry, except for some isolated snow showers. The Aleutians could be the exception since this region would be closer to the storm track over the North Pacific, but nothing appears to be excessive at this time. In terms of temperatures, readings are likely to be slightly above average across much of the central and northern portions of the state through early next week, before transitioning to a colder pattern across the western half of the state as the upper level trough becomes more established across the region. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html