Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EST Thu Jan 06 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 10 2022 - 12Z Fri Jan 14 2022
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
Models and ensembles offer a reasonably similar synoptic scale
pattern evolution through medium range time scales, but with
lingering uncertainty with embedded systems. Accordingly, the WPC
Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of best clustered guidance now from the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means
along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. This maintains
decent WPC product continuity.
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
The flow pattern will steadily transition into the weekend as a
current mainland upper ridge retrogrades westward as ample height
falls/upper trough energies dig back through the state and into
the Bering Sea, leaving a mean weakness over the mainland into
early next week. This should significantly moderate Interior
temperatures. Additional Arctic stream upper trough energy then
digs into an unsettled northwest Alaska mid-later next week.
Meanwhile, a busy storm track will continue to be reinforced
near/south of the Aleutians and the northern Pacific/Gulf of
Alaska. This will favor multiple periods with increasing moisture
and period with brisk winds in some tight pressure gradients from
the Aleutians inland into Southcentral Alaska and the Panhandle by
next week as a series of complex and potentially deep lows
regenerate and rotate around a mean larger scale circulation that
may prove slow to dislodge to the south of the Aleutians and into
the western Gulf of Alaska.
Schichtel
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Jan 9-Jan 11 and Thu, Jan 13.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Jan
9.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland
Alaska, Sun, Jan 9.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sun, Jan 9.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html