Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 602 PM EST Sat Jan 08 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 12 2022 - 12Z Sun Jan 16 2022 ...Guidance/Uncertainty assessment and Weather Pattern/Hazard Highlights... A composite of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian tends to mitigate the less predictable smaller scale differences in otherwise reasonably well clustered solutions days 4/5 (Wednesday/Thursday). Guidance agrees that an amplified Arctic stream upper trough will dig and settle over the North Slope/Brooks Range to offer some cooling and snow potential. A warm and stable upper ridge is meanwhile expected to build northwestward from western Canada into Interior Alaska and eventually the North Slope, well in advance of a stormy maritime pattern into the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. Guidance differences become more problematic on days 6-8 (Friday-next weekend) with varied embedded systems within the models, especially with interaction from a series of Gulf of Alaskan lows into the lead upper ridge from western Canada into the Alaskan mainland. A strong ridge favors heavy precipitation into the AKpen/south-central AK (GFS/Canadian), while having more system energies work into the ridge would increasingly shift precipitation focus across south-central to Southeast AK (ECMWF).ÂThe 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means however are well clustered days 6-8. A preferred composite maintains a decently amplified upper ridge that seems most reasonable considering the recent blocky nature of flow. This would favor a south-central AK coastal precipitation focus whose threat along with enhanced wind flow may be maximized Thursday/Friday with deepened Gulf low approach. Overall, WPC product continuity is well maintained with this strategy. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html