Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 532 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 14 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022 ...Major Aleutians Storm Early Next Week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF are best clustered for details days 4/5 (Mon/Tue), especially the monster low near the Aleutians, and have decent overall support from the other models and ensembles for both offshore lows and general upper troughing and cooled lower atmospheric air over the North Slope and northern Interior. Predictability stays above normal for days 6-8, but forecast spread with some of the embedded features still favors a more compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean blend along with some manual edits to preserve better offshore low depth.ÂWPC product continuity with this plan seems well maintained, with the most uncertainty mid-late next week associated with Aleutian proximity of deepened lows and southern tier QPF spread. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Forecast confidence is high that a powerhouse and slow moving Aleutian storm slated to intensify below 960 mb will present a threat of high winds/waves and wrapping heavy precipitation early next week. Several pieces of guidance show gusts near hurricane strength are possible. Subsequent deepened low threat potential will continue into mid-later next week given favorable support pattern, albeit with less certain track/details. Strong flow between these deep lows and around the periphery of an amplified northeast Pacific ridge will also provide a conduit for a deeper moisture and precipitation focus from the AKpen/Southwest Alaska through Southern/Southeast Alaska, locally enhanced as systems/energies break downstream through the period. Moderate to locally heavy snow will be enhanced by terrain, with rains more likely closer to the coast. Meanwhile, much of the Interior/North Slope should start out chilly, but slowly moderate next week. The southern third of the Mainland should be in a warming trend through much of the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region. Daytime highs near 10-20 degrees above normal are possible, with overnight low anomalies even greater. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17. - High winds across western Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of western Alaska, Sun-Tue, Feb 13-Feb 15. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html