Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 526 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 2 2022 - 12Z Sun Mar 6 2022 ...Pattern Overview... Multiple storm systems are forecast to traverse the North Pacific and impact the Aleutians and portions of the western mainland through the end of the week, although nothing out of the ordinary in terms of expected intensity. An upper level ridge is expected to build over eastern Alaska and western Canada by Friday and into next weekend, with a return to above normal temperatures across much of the state. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... There is reasonable synoptic scale agreement on the main weather features of interest on Wednesday, including a weakening low approaching the southeast Panhandle region. By Thursday, the ECMWF is displaced to the southeast of the model consensus with the next low lifting northward towards the Aleutians, and this trend continues through Friday night as the main low settles over the Bering. The GFS and CMC solutions are closer to the ensemble means. More uncertainty exists with the last organized low entering the Alaska domain from the North Pacific next weekend, with the CMC well east of the ensemble means, and the GFS slower in bringing the low north and the ECMWF well to the north. Taking these factors into account, the WPC fronts/pressures forecast was primarily based on a multi-deterministic blend for Wednesday, and then weighting slightly more towards the GFS whilst gradually increasing contributions from the ECENS/GEFS means through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Southerly flow from the Gulf of Alaska will advect moisture northward and thus keep rain and snow chances in the forecast from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula, as a low pressure system lifts northward and then enters the Bering. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain/snow are possible, along with gusty winds, and the locations of the heaviest QPF will be dependent on the low track. Some light rain/mountain snow will likely reach across western Alaska later next week, but central and eastern portions of the Interior should remain dry underneath a building upper ridge. Above average temperatures will dominate much of Mainland Alaska through next week, both for daytime highs and overnight lows. The highest anomalies are forecast over the northern and western parts of the mainland later in the week and into the weekend. The exception to this will be across the Panhandle and southeastern Mainland where near average temps are expected owing to more onshore flow. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html