Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 454 PM EST Wed Mar 02 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 06 2022 - 12Z Thu Mar 10 2022 ...Pattern Overview... A very warm weather pattern remains on tap for much of Alaska under amplified upper ridging as multiple but modest systems traverse the North Pacific to impact the Aleutians as well as the southern coast and Southeast Panhandle... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian solutions seem best clustered and reasonable valid Day 4/Sunday into early Monday and a blend seems to have good ensemble support. Models solutions quickly become much less clustered through the rest of the forecast period increasingly into a pattern with less than average predictability.ÂI'd suggest a blend of the more run to run compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF/NAEFS means to maintain as much product continuity as feasible. This solution holds onto more mainland upper ridging next week than the GFS/Canadian and less than the amplified ECMWF. This seems reasonable at this point given increasing uncertainties with embedded impulses at these time frames and persistence. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Modest low energies will work over the Gulf of Alaska into Sunday/Monday to focus some moderate to heavy precipitation from the southern Alaskan coast through the Southeast Panhandle with northern stream upper trough passage. Meanwhile, a series of lows with uncertain intensities will rotate through a mean western Aleutians upper trough position to likely keep conditions unsettled next week to include periods of enhanced rains/winds for the Aleutians and the Alaskan Peninsula. Elsewhere, the Interior and North Slope should be mostly dry into early next week in the wake of weekend system passage. Much above average temperatures, especially overnight lows, will focus over the Interior and especially northern Alaska. Warmest anomalies are expected to generally range from 20-30 degrees above normal, but locally higher values may produce record values into early next week. There is some model signal for unsettling and moderating Bering Sea sourced upper troughing and associated downstream system digging/passage across this region into the Tuesday-next Thursday time frame, but considerable flow uncertainty exists at these time frames, so prefer at this point a favored composite of ensemble means to maintain max product and pattern continuity. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southeast mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Mar 5-Mar 7. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html