Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 513 PM EST Thu Mar 03 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 07 2022 - 12Z Fri Mar 11 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... WPC Alaskan medium range products were primarily derived from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET versus the much more stream phased 12 UTC GFS/Canadian for Day 4/Mon. A tougher call today with guidance, but this is consistent with WPC product continuity and earlier AK ROC/WPC Hazards Outlook desk collaboration. Used the whole forecast domain compatible ECMWF/UKMET into Day 6/Wed. This blend does trend stronger with upper trough energy digging into the North Slope/Interior Tue/Wed than WPC continuity, but in retrospect this seems reasonable considering weekend system organization up over the Bering Sea and coupled upper ridge amplitude. Switched to a blend of the GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into days 7/8 that seem to best provide a broad forecast consistent with an overall pattern sensitive to data input that is leading to below normal predictability. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Favored ECMWF/UKMET guidance indicates that a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation over the Southeast Panhandle will diminish Monday as high pressure filters into the region in the wake of northern stream upper trough passage. The alternate solution of the GFS/Canadian would allow for an extra day of activity. This would be as southern stream low pressure/modest precipitation that the ECMWF/UKMET lifts toward the AK peninsula is instead phased northeastward into an eastern Gulf of Alaska northern stream system. The North Slope/Interior will be mostly dry into early next week in a period with much above average temperatures, especially overnight lows. Warmest anomalies are expected to generally range from 20-30 degrees above normal, but locally higher values may rival records. There is an increasing model signal for unsettling and temperature moderating Bering Sea sourced upper troughing to dig downstream into the North Slope/Interior into Tuesday/Wednesday, and WPC products now more readily embrace this temperature moderating and unsettling trend that could lead to some periods of wintry precipitation as locally enhanced by favored terrain. Meanwhile, a series of main and triple point lows will work and reform to keep conditions unsettled next week to include periods of enhanced rains/winds for the Aleutians, with modest precipitation spreading downstream into the Alaskan Peninsula and eventually across the Alaskan southern tier with gradual system progression undercutting the retrograded westward re-positioned upper ridge within the generally blocky larger scale flow pattern. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southeast mainland Alaska, Sun, Mar 6. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html