Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
508 PM EST Fri Mar 04 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 08 2022 - 12Z Sat Mar 12 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The medium range products were primarily derived from a
combination of the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET with light inclusion through
Thursday evening. The latest GFS has trended slightly closer to
the ECWMF solution compared to previous cycles but still
differences with timing/placement. Beyond Thursday evening the
blend quickly transitioned to using only an equal split of the 12Z
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means as these solutions kept a
consistent pattern evolution given the below normal predictability.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A series of lows (and triple point lows) will rotate through and
reform near the Aleutians through the extended period. This will
keep much of this part of the region unsettled, with periods of
enhanced rains/winds for the Aleutians. Additionally this may
bring modest precipitation to locations downstream into the
Alaskan Peninsula, across the southern tier with gradual system
progression undercutting the retrograded westward re-positioned
upper ridge within the generally blocky larger scale flow pattern.
With ridging/high pressure over much of the northern
tier/Interior, mostly dry and warm conditions are to be expected
for multiple days. Daily temperature readings will be much above
normal, particularly the overnight lows. Readings may be as much
as 20 to 30 degrees warmer, with a few locations possibly setting
new records.There has been a recent and increasing model signal
for unsettling and temperature moderating Bering Sea sourced upper
troughing to dig downstream into the North Slope/Interior into
Tuesday/Wednesday. With this temperature moderating and unsettling
trend there may some periods of wintry precipitation as locally
enhanced by favored terrain.
Campbell
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html