Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 527 PM EST Sun Mar 06 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 10 2022 - 12Z Mon Mar 14 2022 ...Overview... A persistent upper high atop eastern Russia and the Chukchi Sea will help promote above normal temperatures for portions of northern and eastern Alaska through next Monday. Mainland Alaska will generally be in a col pattern between this feature, rounds of upper troughing/lows over the Aleutians, ridging over the East Pacific that should get shunted eastward by late week, and periods of troughing in the northeastern part of the state. This should lead to unsettled weather particularly over the Aleutians, with some precipitation spreading east in the southern half of the mainland and Panhandle. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest guidance continues to have a decent handle on the upper high that will be positioned to the northwest of the state/eastern Russia with high pressure also over the eastern Pacific ocean. This would favor general troughing near the northeast part of the state as well as an active gyre over the Bering Sea/Aleutian region. There was been run-to-run variability with the series of lows expected to rotate through the Aleutians/adjacent region and across Northeast Mainland. The details of these smaller scale features within this broader troughing pattern are quite uncertain and will likely take a few more days for models to converge properly. Regardless, models generally show some of this energy spilling eastward to shunt the East Pacific ridge east into North America by late week, though with some timing differences. The WPC forecast mostly comprised of a combination of the 12Z ECWMF/GFS/UKMET for the first few periods before transitioning to a blend of the ECWMF/EC ensemble means/GFS/GEFS Mean for the later periods. This weighting provided a since of continuity from the previous forecast cycle. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Much of the region will be unsettled as a series of surface lows (including triple point lows) will rotate/reform near the Aleutians within a broader trough. These features will allow for periods where there are enhanced winds and rainfall, primarily for the the Aleutian Chain but modest precipitation will also spread eastward along the southern tier of the Mainland and parts over the Southeast. The heaviest amounts are forecast along the coast, but some snow should spread farther north in the mainland as well. A large portion of the Mainland will be mild and mostly dry. Daily temperatures, particularly in terms of overnight/morning low readings that are forecast to range 15 to 30F warmer than seasonal average, while the afternoon highs range 10 to 20F warmer than for locations across northern and western Alaska. The Panhandle and the eastern part of the Mainland will generally be cooler during the extended period. In general, temperatures should moderate closer to normal by next weekend but remain above average for western Alaska, while the Panhandle and eastern mainland are cooler. Campbell/Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html