Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 630 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 21 2022 - 12Z Fri Mar 25 2022 ...Pattern Overview... It remains the case that one main feature near Alaska for the medium range period will be a mean upper low with possibly multiple centers of focus at times meandering in the Gulf of Alaska. Energies near the Alaska Peninsula combined with an active storm track across the northeastern Pacific will serve to redevelop and reinforce mean low pressure across the Gulf next week. A series of low pressure systems will bring a sustained period of unsettled weather through the Panhandle and occasionally up into the southern coast for much of the period. A low near the Kamchatka Peninsula will swing a cold front through the Aleutians and lead low focus over the Bering Sea next week, with a blocky upper ridge setting up over northwest Alaska to limit eastward progression. Downstream in this pattern, upper troughing would also begin to amplify more over an unsettled Mainland as an upper ridge/high settles into northwest AK, albeit with less certainty. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions seem best clustered and reasonable days 4-6 (Mon-Wed). A composite offers decent product continuity and average predictability with an improving signal both for a warming ridge/high building aloft over northwest/northern AK and a cooling/unsettling low system focus centered over the Alaskan Interior and the Gulf of Alaska. However, the 12 UTC GFS is more of an outlier over the Gulf and brings a less likely deeper low into Southeast Alaska midweek that was discounted for deterministic products given the overall pattern. Forecast spread increases rapidly into day 7/8 so prefer a composite of the much more compatible 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means to preserve product continuity. This overall forecast plan was collaborated with Alaskan offices. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Precipitation through much of the period is expected to focus from south-central Alaska to especially southeastern Alaska given the general northern Pacific storm track into the Gulf to include several deepened lows. The region will experience varying rainfall intensities depending on uncertain surface low progressions. While precipitation does not appear to be very intense overall most periods, recent heavy rain/snow across the area could make it more sensitive to additional impacts. Amounts seem most likely to pick up early next week with best organized system approaches. Farther north, some periods of snow are also possible with unsettled conditions aloft over the Interior next week. Meanwhile, slow low/frontal system progression over the Aleutians and the Bering Sea next week may lead to subsequent low re-development and weather focus through southwest Alaska to the western Gulf of Alaska into later next week. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html