Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 12Z Sun Mar 27 2022
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A warming closed high/ridge over northwest Alaska into midweek
should re-center over the Arctic Ocean for the remainder of next
week, leaving behind a generally benign and moderated weather
pattern across the North Slope and Interior. This is expected to
occur as a persistent closed low/trough centered over the AKpen/NW
Gulf of AK into Friday reforms and settles over the south-central
Gulf next weekend as a maritime threat. Flow around
associated/deepened low pressure systems may present a lingering
pattern favorable for periods of moderate precipitation (coastal
rains/terrain snows) through next week from south-central AK to
the Southeast Alaskan Panhandle. Meanwhile, deep low genesis with
amplified upper trough energies may track toward the Aleutians in
about a week from eastern Asia, but guidance continuity has been
way less than stellar with this potential storm track threat.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The 12 UTC Canadian is a stark outlier across the North Pacific
with a deep lead low to the south of the Aleutians/Gulf of AK in
contrast to the better clustered solutions across most of the
entire forecast domain of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET, at least
Wednesday into Thursday.ÂGuidance forecast spread and continuity
rapidly becomes problematic by Friday, especially over the north
Pacific. Suggest a composite of the better clustered 12 UTC
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and then manually adjust the
offshore lows deeper and increase winds to counter the weakening
effects of averaging/blending consistent with lowered
predictability.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html