Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 635 PM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 12Z Sun Mar 27 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A warming closed high/ridge over northwest Alaska into midweek should re-center over the Arctic Ocean for the remainder of next week, leaving behind a generally benign and moderated weather pattern across the North Slope and Interior. This is expected to occur as a persistent closed low/trough centered over the AKpen/NW Gulf of AK into Friday reforms and settles over the south-central Gulf next weekend as a maritime threat. Flow around associated/deepened low pressure systems may present a lingering pattern favorable for periods of moderate precipitation (coastal rains/terrain snows) through next week from south-central AK to the Southeast Alaskan Panhandle. Meanwhile, deep low genesis with amplified upper trough energies may track toward the Aleutians in about a week from eastern Asia, but guidance continuity has been way less than stellar with this potential storm track threat. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC Canadian is a stark outlier across the North Pacific with a deep lead low to the south of the Aleutians/Gulf of AK in contrast to the better clustered solutions across most of the entire forecast domain of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET, at least Wednesday into Thursday.ÂGuidance forecast spread and continuity rapidly becomes problematic by Friday, especially over the north Pacific. Suggest a composite of the better clustered 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and then manually adjust the offshore lows deeper and increase winds to counter the weakening effects of averaging/blending consistent with lowered predictability. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html