Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 621 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 24 2022 - 12Z Mon Mar 28 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A closed high/ridge is expected settle over the Arctic Ocean this period, leaving behind a still generally benign weather pattern for the North Slope and Alaskan Interior. This is expected to occur as a persistent closed low/trough centered over the Alaskan Peninsula to northwest Gulf of Alaska into Friday then reforms and settles over the south-central Gulf of Alaska. Flow around associated/deepened low pressure systems may present a lingering pattern favorable for some periods of moderate precipitation (coastal rains/terrain snows) from south-central Alaska to the Southeast Alaskan Panhandle. Meanwhile, there is a growing guidance signal that deep low genesis with amplified upper trough energies progressing off eastern Asia this week will track to the Aleutians next weekend with enhanced winds, rains and waves before then possibly progressing into the western Gulf of Alaska by early next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in slightly better agreement at medium range time scales today. Forecast spread growth is still problematic over time, still characteristically with the evolution/track of Pacific/Gulf lows. Accordingly, favor a blended solution with heavy weighting on the GFS/ECMWF days 4/5 (Thu/Fri) for better details and then slowly increasing ensemble mean focus days 6-8 to mitigate the less predictable forecast components. This overall maintains good WPC product continuity. However, it should still be noted that a less likely outlier solution again today from the 12 UTC Canadian through medium range time scales over the North Pacific does at minimum provide evidence that guidance may still be sensitive to initialization data in the energetic flow. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html