Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 628 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 25 2022 - 12Z Tue Mar 29 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... It remains that case that a closed high/ridge is expected settle over the Arctic Ocean through later week/weekend before possible ejection and replacement by a westward working upper trough. A generally benign weather pattern for the North Slope and Alaskan Interior could become more unsettled over the North Slope with this flow transition. Meanwhile, a closed low/trough centered over the Alaskan Peninsula to northwest Gulf of Alaska into Friday then reforms and settles over the south-central Gulf of Alaska and down into the northeast Pacific. Lingering flow around associated/deepened low pressure systems may nonetheless present a lingering pattern favorable for some periods of moderate precipitation (coastal rains/terrain snows) from south-central Alaska to the Southeast Alaskan Panhandle. The WPC Hazards Outlook desk in collaboration with the Alaska Region ROC identified a threat for heavy precipitation into Kodiak Island/South-Central Coastal Alaska Thursday into early Friday with approach of a lead/organized northern Gulf of Alaska low. Trends from latest guidance are slightly more offshore now with this low. Later, there is a growing guidance signal that deep low genesis with amplified upper trough energies progressing off eastern Asia will track toward the Aleutians later this week and spread enhanced winds, rains and waves across the region before progressing into the Gulf of Alaska into early next week. Yet another deepened low may work over the north Pacific in the wake of this system, but with increased uncertainty at this longer time frame. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The best clustering of model/ensemble guidance and WPC Alaskan medium range product continuity seems to include the 12 UTC ECMWF/Canadian and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means days 4-7 (Friday into next Monday), albeit in a pattern with average to below normal system predictability, mainly with maritime lows. Only the less detailed ensemble means remain well clustered later next Monday into next Tuesday, but do seem to provide reasonably consistent pattern evolution. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Mar 24. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html