Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 654 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 04 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 08 2022 ...Overview... A general pattern of upper troughing should persist through much of the period, especially for western Alaska and the Bering Sea. At this surface, this keeps the storms track generally south with systems moving through the north Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, while additional low pressure may linger near the southwestern Mainland into the middle of next week. This will promote a wet pattern for southern Alaska, particularly over the Panhandle, though amounts do not look to be terribly heavy. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance continues to show fairly good clustering with the pattern during the first half of next week, featuring an upper low near the Panhandle on Monday and an elongated upper low over the western Mainland which should drift slowly westward into the middle of the week. Several systems will round the base of this trough with developing low pressure lifting towards the Panhandle mid week and another across the Bering Sea/Peninsula and eventually into the Gulf by the end of the period. Farther upstream, recent GFS runs continue to show a second surface low across the western Bering which crosses the Aleutians around day 5-6, but other pieces of guidance don't provide much support for that. Otherwise, most of the uncertainty late period is from typical timing and strength of individual low pressure systems. By day 7, the 12z ECMWF is a little bit weaker and faster to send the Panhandle low into western Canada, while the CMC/GFS maintain circulation off the coast. The WPC preference featured a purely deterministic model blend (with slightly more weighting towards the 12z ECMWF) for days 4-5. After that, the blend leans increasingly more on the ensemble means to help mitigate the late period differences mentioned above. This resulted in reasonably good continuity with yesterdays WPC forecast over Alaska, as well as today's forecast farther downstream across the CONUS. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Precipitation is possible over southern parts of Alaska from the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula east into Southcentral Alaska and the Panhandle through much of next week near low pressure systems. Some rain/snow amounts could be enhanced at times, but the heaviest totals through the period will be dependent on exact low tracks that remain uncertain at this point. The current forecast indicates southern portions of the Panhandle may receive the most precipitation overall, but as it falls over a several day period, it shouldn't be particularly impactful. Interior Alaska should see generally dry conditions as the storm track stays to the south. Periods of gusty winds are also possible along low tracks, and the gradient south of Arctic high pressure may support a period of breezy conditions across the North Slope and cold wind chill values. Near average to below average highs are forecast over much of the state early in the week, with the greatest anomalies across the North Slope and lower elevations of the interior. The cold anomalies could ease by the middle of next week, with some locations across northern Alaska above normal. Low temperatures should be closer to normal over the North Slope and Interior compared to the cool highs, while milder than average lows are predicted in the southern mainland and the Brooks Range. The Panhandle can expect to see below normal highs and around average lows through the period owing to mostly cloudy skies and wet conditions. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html