Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 622 PM EDT Thu Apr 07 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 11 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 ...Pattern and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A main Bering Sea upper ridge this weekend remains slated to build inland and settle over the mainland by early next week, setting the stage for development of an increasingly blocky pattern around Alaska that may characteristically linger through much of next week. Multiple low pressure systems are set to moderately develop on the periphery of the warming/stabilizing upper ridge in a pattern with overall limited significant hazards potential over the state. Precipitation should be limited over the state during this medium range forecast period in this scenario due to the shielding/blocky upper ridge, with modest activity mainly to focus with energies digging southward through the North Slope and eastern Interior/Gulf of Alaska and more earnestly with a prolonged and deep layered low position near the Aleutians next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The decently clustered 12 UTC models show better developed troughs around the building mainland upper ridge than the ensemble means into Day 4/5 (Mon/Tue), better in line with a developing Omega block pattern and a GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian composite seems to offer wanted detail compared to the ensemble means. Embedded system amplitude/timing differences do remain at both lower and higher latitudes, but forecast spread has improved a bit from yesterday. The 12 UTC ECMWF does seem to be the model of the day weakening the block too rapidly into days 7/8 (yesterday it was the GFS), so for that period today prefer a solution with mainly a combo of the compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means for run to run stability and the 12 UTC GFS/Canadian models (with relatively smaller applied weights) to keep better system amplitudes consistent with overall pattern trends in a pattern with near average predictability. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html