Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 745 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 15 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 19 2022 ...Pattern and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An upper level ridge axis is forecast to be in place across mainland Alaska for the end of the week, with an anomalous surface high becoming entrenched north of the Arctic Coast. A weak upper low will likely track westward across the Interior this weekend and then meander over the Bering. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system over the Bering through the end of the week should weaken by the weekend. An even more impressive storm, which will then be the remnants of what is currently Typhoon Malakas, is forecast to approach the Aleutians for the beginning of next week, along with another low entering the Gulf of Alaska. Most of the state should begin the extended forecast period with temperatures generally near to above average, and then colder weather arrives in time for the weekend for the eastern half of the state as a cold front moves in from western Canada. Milder conditions should continue for the southwestern mainland going into the beginning of next week. In terms of precipitation, most of the Interior region should remain dry, and periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for coastal regions of southern Alaska as storm systems pass south of the coast. Windy conditions are also possible for portions of the Aleutians for the beginning of next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Differences in the model guidance are apparent as early as Friday with the 12Z/18Z GFS well to the east of the 12Z CMC/ECMWF/ensemble means with the low pressure area over the Bering. For the eventual remnants of what is now Typhoon Malakas, the 12Z GFS is extremely progressive compared to the well clustered CMC/ECMWF/ECENS, and the GFS has also indicated a big continuity change compared to yesterday, when it had hardly anything for this same low pressure system. Taking these factors into account, a blend of the ECMWF/CMC and some of the ECENS/GEFS works well as a starting point through Saturday, and then a nearly equal ECMWF/CMC/ECENS/CMC mean blend for the remainder of the forecast period. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html