Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 624 PM EDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 20 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 24 2022 ...Two major storms for the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The foremost focus of significant systems next week will be near the Aleutians and over the Gulf of Alaska. Deep and moist low pressure originally associated with Typhoon Malakas should track over and then southeastward from the Aleutians over the next few days, bringing strong winds, enhanced precipitation and maritime threats. It will then track well offshore into the far southern Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific into mid-later next week as a maritime threat. This will set the stage for quite a stormy upcoming week. The medium range guidance signal is steadily growing in support for development of new and dynamic deep low to track toward the Aleutians into mid-later next week on the heels of the lead storm. In comparison, this second powerful low does not have a tropical origin and will be slated to subsequently work more into the northern Gulf of Alaska into later next week/next weekend along with a potent closed upper low/trough. This would also up the wind/wave/precipitation threat ante for the Alaskan Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the southern tier of Alaska that should not be significantly affected by the lead system. Overall, the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF solutions seem best clustered and enjoy ample ensemble support. Accordingly, WPC product guidance for days 4-8 (Wed-next Sunday) have been derived mainly from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF along with smaller than normal inputs from the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means through the forecast period in a pattern with above normal predictability.ĀThis guidance strategy also fits the general flow pattern expected over North Slope and Interior comprised mainly of an initially amplified but slowly weakening upper ridge over the north and a less defined upper weakness/trough settling over the south-central Interior. In this pattern, much of these areas should remain fairly dry with at most very light/scattered precipitation. In general expect above normal temperatures over most of the northwestern half of the mainland and below normal readings over the southeastern half of the mainland and the Panhandle. WPC product continuity seems well maintained across much of the domain with this overall solution, albeit with a trend for deeper main offshore lows consistent with more universally favorable support. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html