Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 29 2022 - 12Z Tue May 03 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The flow pattern is getting more active again and a blend of best
clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF
ensemble means seems to provide a good forecast starting point
through medium range time scales, albeit with more emphasis on the
models days 4-6/7 for system depth/details before switching main
focus to the ensemble means day 7/8 as predictability lowers from
above to near normal levels. This solution maintains good WPC
product continuity and system organization/depth consistent with
predictability and support.
...Overview Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Modest lead upper trough and surface low/system energies and
moisture will lift across the eastern Gulf of Alaska Friday into
the weekend, but are only expected to produce limited coastal
precipitation chances from southeast to southern Alaska. The
lifting occurs in response to more massive and amplified upper
trough development slated to gradually work/reform from the
southern Bering Sea/Aleutians to the western Gulf of Alaska over
this forecast period. The associated and potentially deep main
lows and triple point low developments offer an emerging maritime
wind/wave threat along with an increasing guidance signal to be
monitored for wind wrapping moderate to heavier precipitation
across the Aleutians through the Alaskan Peninsula/Kodiak Island
to southern and southeastern Alaska Friday-next Tuesday with
gradual system/pattern translation. In contrast, expect much of
the Interior and North Slope to mainly remain dry for the coming
week in a benign weather pattern.
Schichtel
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html