Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 758 PM EDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 12Z Wed May 04 2022 - 12Z Sun May 08 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance is in general agreement with keeping a relatively tranquil synoptic pattern over Alaska as the most active storm track is forecast to stay well to the south across the northern Pacific through the medium-range period. A couple of upper lows are forecast to come into play as they rotate about each other in the vicinity of Alaska. There continues to be some model spread regarding the track of an upper low forecast to drop southward near/just off the west coast of mainland Alaska. The GFS and CMC swing the upper low farther out across the Bering Sea while the ECMWF and EC mean keep it closer to the coast. The GFS appears to indicate a gradual trend toward the ECMWF. Meanwhile, the other upper low located over the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate. The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on a 40% blend of the 06Z and 12Z GFS/12Z GEFS, 40% of the 00Z EC/EC mean, and 20% from the 00Z CMC/CMC mean, transitioning towards 75% of the ensemble means by Day 8. The CMC appears to get progressively faster than the GFS/EC consensus with time, and thus was gradually taken out from the blend with time. A slightly more weight toward the EC solutions was given on Days 6 and 7. The results appeared very similar to yesterday's forecast package. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... An occluded cyclone meandering in the Gulf as the medium-range period begins will likely be associated with moderate to locally heavy precipitation across the Panhandle and into portions of Southern Coast region. Precipitation should lessen in intensity thereafter as the cyclone weakens. The upper low dropping southward near the West Coast to the Aleutians by the weekend should result in modest amounts of precipitation near its track. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary should keep some scattered light rain and snow showers mainly across parts of southern Mainland Alaska and into southwestern Alaska. The next low into the Gulf next Friday into Saturday should stay well to the south of the Aleutians with limited impacts to the islands, but an uptick in moisture for parts of the Southern Coast and Panhandle is once again possible by next weekend as the low is forecast to head towards the Gulf. Temperatures across southern Alaska, the Panhandle and also the North Slope region should remain near or below normal through next weekend as a modestly cold high pressure system slides eastward across the Arctic Ocean. Across central and especially east-central Alaska, upper level ridging should keep daytime highs above normal, and when combined with a remaining snow pack in the region, could present some flooding concerns across portions of the Yukon River Basin in eastern Alaska. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html