Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 659 PM EDT Sat May 07 2022 Valid 12Z Wed May 11 2022 - 12Z Sun May 15 2022 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12z model guidance from today continue to have a fairly good handle on the large scale pattern through the extended range time period. This features a rather amplified pattern with troughing over the mainland/Gulf of Alaska and ridging across the Aleutians and into the western Bering. A system well to the south of the Aleutians will translate east, and eventually phase with Gulf troughing bringing a closed low into the region. West of the Aleutians, another deep closed low will meander and shift only slightly southward as it becomes blocked by the amplified ridging. The greatest uncertainties surround the details of a couple weak shortwaves over the mainland and the eventual evolution of Gulf of Alaska low pressure the second half of the period. The UKMET was an outlier early on being too quick to erode the ridge and bring the deep low west of the Aleutians farther north/east than the other models and the ensembles. The WPC forecast for today used a blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC the first half of the period, leaning more on the ensemble means the latter half. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Increasing precipitation chances are likely across portions of interior Alaska next week as troughing and a surface front cross the area. The precipitation should spread into southern and southeastern Alaska and the Panhandle by later in the week, but heavy totals are generally not expected. Increased precipitation with moderate to locally heavy totals are possible by next weekend as a frontal system works its way through the Gulf. River flooding, significant in some places, is expected to be ongoing owing to rising temperatures, ice jams, and snow melt. Temperatures across much of Alaska should be below normal through the period underneath of amplified upper level troughing. The exception to this could be far southwest Alaska where upper ridging may try to sneak in. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html