Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 638 PM EDT Sun May 08 2022 Valid 12Z Thu May 12 2022 - 12Z Mon May 16 2022 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model solutions and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seem reasonably well clustered into Day 4/Thursday, but the Canadian/UKMET become less in line with upper ridge amplification over the Bering Sea/Strait and downstream from Northern Alaska to the Gulf of Alaska with systems digging into an amplified/multi-center upper trough position Day 5/6 Friday into Saturday. Embedded system differences in the models grow enough into day 7/8 (next Sunday/Monday) to seem to justify a switch to just an ensemble mean forecast approach. With the assumption the aforementioned upper ridge builds near commonly advertised, the ECMWF ensemble mean then seems more reasonable showing a less progressive ridge/pattern by then than the GEFS mean. This forecast plan seems to maintain reasonably good WPC Alaskan medium range product suite continuity in a pattern with at least average forecast predictability. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Increased light to moderate precipitation chances are likely to organize across portions of northern/Interior Alaska later this week into next as upper disturbances and several surface fronts work across the area. Meanwhile, a focus for moderate precipitation should also linger over southern and southeastern Alaska and the Panhandle into Thursday/Friday with slowly exiting eastern Gulf of Alaska low proximity, but heavy totals are generally not expected. Increased precipitation with moderate to locally heavy totals are also possible next weekend into early next week as a less certain deepened low and frontal system seems set to works into the central to eastern Gulf of Alaska. River flooding, significant in some places across the state, is expected to be ongoing even with generally below to seasonal seasonal Spring temperatures, ice jams, and snow melt. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html