Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 754 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024 - 12Z Sat May 04 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The latest guidance did not resolve the large degree of spread that has been persistent for days now. What has been somewhat consistent is the pattern with multiple lows/surface fronts parading east from the Bering, across the Aleutians toward the Southeast. There is a slot of cold air aloft within this mean lows which would support keeping this pattern around for awhile longer. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF model solutions continued to be the best clustered with ensemble means for the extended period. Emphasis was shifted from the GFS/ECWMF to the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means. WPC product continuity is reasonably maintained in this fashion, albeit with a trend toward deeper Aleutian lows given pattern history and potentially quite favorable upper support. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Multiple weak low pressure frontal systems will queue west to east across the Aleutians and Gulf through next weekend which focus areas of modest maritime winds/waves/rainfall that could clip southern tier coastal areas, albeit in an overall benign weather pattern. A vast portion of the state will experience above seasonal average temperatures for the start of the month particularly the Interior where anomalies will be the highest. To the north of a front settling over the north-central mainland, cold high pressure over the Arctic may keep temperatures near to somewhat below normal, especially across the North Slope and guidance shows some spotty/modest precipitation. Locations near the Southcentral coast and northern Panhandle may also see near or slightly below normal readings. Meanwhile, guidance has been trending toward the development of much deeper low pressure systems to mainly affect the Aleutians and Bering Sea early next week and into later next week. These offer potentially hazardous multi-day periods with enhanced wind flow/waves and rainfall to monitor. Slow eastward progressions of these organized systems within the amplified pattern may lead to enhanced lead frontal inflow and precipitation into west/southwest Alaska and downstream with re-developments into the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island and then Southcentral Alaska late next week. Campbell/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html