Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
630 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 16 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 20 Nov 2025


...Powerhouse Storm to Impact Aleutians/Bering/Southwest Alaska...


...Synoptic Overview...

Wet, and unsettled pattern for mainly the maritime areas and the 
southern/southeast coastal tier. Rain and mountain snow will
linger for southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island as the low
moves further into the Gulf of Alaska. Potent storm lifting
northward expected to yield high winds, impacting the Aleutians,the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. Scattered to widespread
precipitation will primarily focus along the southern tier as
well.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Much of the Interior and North Slope vicinity will be cooler with
limited areas of precipitation on a mean upper trough. Periods of
enhanced wind/waves along with precipitation is expected to reach
the Gulf and focus along the southern coast and Southeast. 
A deep extratropical low with energy and moisture connection to 
current West Pacific Typhoon Fung-Wong looks to focus impacts into
the Aleutians/southern Bering Sea and may affect Southwest Alaska
and onward late weekend into early next week. Guidance has been
persistent in maintaining a lot of spread with the evolution and
track of this system however a constant has been that this storm
will likely pack a punch wherever it ends up tracking. 

A majority of the forecast was based on the ECMWF/EC ensemble
means for the extended period, with some inclusion of the
UKMET/CMC/GFS very early on.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern 
coastal areas of the state into Saturday as an emerging Gulf of 
Alaska low enhances onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be 
moderate in intensity for the most part. Mean temperatures are 
generally expected to trend below average across much of the 
Interior and the North Slope over much the forecast period.

A very stormy and unsettled weather pattern will likely impact 
the Aleutians and Bering Sea. A deep and powerful low pressure 
system is expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded
into the western Bering Sea. A stronger and impactful 
extratropcial low tracking from the northwest Pacific is then 
slated to lift ahead of the western Bering Sea low up through the 
Aleutians into the Bering Sea. This latter deep system has some 
energy and long fetch moisture connections to current west-Pacific
Typhoon Fung- Wong. This will likely result in strong winds, 
heavy rains, and high seas through the Aleutians/Bering Sea and 
could lead into later weekend to early next week impacts into 
Southwest Alaska along with subsequent unsettling downstream 
translation of system energies and moderate precipitation/winds 
through the Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and southern 
Alaska tier.

Campbell




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html