Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
729 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 11 Oct 2025 - 12Z Wed 15 Oct 2025


...Series of potent storms offer Aleutians to western and 
southern Alaska high wind/wave and heavy rain threats...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The energetic and stormy pattern starts out with above normal 
predictability with respect to the ejection of current west 
Pacific Typhoon Halong into the westerlies to Alaska this weekend 
into early next week and ending near average predictability with 
the approach of another deepened, closed low pressure system 
upstream. Maintained continuity by starting with equal weighting 
of the CMC/EC/GFS, including the EC/GEFS means over the weekend 
and then bumping up to a 70/30 deterministic to means ratio for 
this coming week.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A stormy weather pattern will remain across parts of the Alaska 
domain this week in an overall warm pattern. A lead system will 
work through northern Alaska midweek, with some locally enhanced 
winds and precipitation lingering over the North Slope and the 
Interior into Friday in wake flow of the low. Upper trough energy
split over the northern Gulf of Alaska may also act to focus 
modest mid-late week low development with some 
precipitation/unsettled weather for southern/southeast Alaska, 
followed by weekend frontal passage and some moderate gap flows.

Upstream, closed upper low/trough development will support a main
deep mean surface storm/low position over the Aleutians and 
Bering Sea late week through early next week that will offer a 
prolonged opportunity for periods of high winds/waves and wrapping
rainfall. There continues to be a growing signal within the
guidance for a deep and potent storm to lift in advance of this 
position over the weekend into early next week to focus a 
potentially significant threat for high winds/waves, wrapping 
rainfall and potential for coastal flooding into Southwest/Western
Alaska along with enhanced snow potential more over colder 
northwestern Alaska. This strong extratropical low will have 
favorable upper support and a deep moisture connection to Typhoon 
Halong. Approach and downstream undercutting energy and 
system/frontal progression across the Alaska Peninsula into the 
Gulf of Alaska should act to enhance lead inflow to fuel growing 
precipitation to spread across Kodiak Island and SouthCentral to 
Southeast Alaska Sunday into early next week with downstream 
translation. Additional deep low approach on the heels of this 
system is also then possible.


Campbell/Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html