Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
655 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 15 Nov 2025 - 12Z Wed 19 Nov 2025


...Powerhouse Storm to Impact Aleutians/Bering/Southwest Alaska...


...Synoptic Overview...

Wet, and unsettled pattern for mainly the maritime areas and the 
southern/southeast coastal tier into later week. In this flow a 
low pressure system will approach the southern Alaska Peninsula 
and Kodiak Island towards Friday with terrain enhanced rains and 
mountain snows into the weekend. Growing signal persists for a 
much stronger storm to impact the Aleutians and the Bering Sea by 
this weekend before affecting Southwest Alaska.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Stormy flow for portions of Alaska and vicinity through medium 
range period. Much of the Interior and North Slope vicinity will
be cooler with limited areas of precipitation on a mean upper
trough. Periods of enhanced wind/waves along with precipitation 
is expected to reach the Gulf and focus along the southern coast 
and Southeast. Upstream, a deep extratropical low with energy and 
moisture connection to current West Pacific Typhoon Fung-Wong 
looks to focus impacts into the Aleutians/southern Bering Sea into
this weekend and may affect Southwest Alaska and onward late 
weekend into early next week. There is a lot of spread in the 
guidance particularly with this low and accompanied energies which
has lowered confidence on where it will track. However there is 
increasing confidence that high winds could pack a punch to the 
Aleutians and the Southwest along with impactful weather.

Overall, leaned toward a heavier weighting of 12 UTC ECMWF and 
GEFS/ECMWF ensembles with some inclusion of the GFS and CMC
initially.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern 
coastal areas of the state Friday into Saturday as an emerging 
Gulf of Alaska low enhances onshore flow, but it mainly appears to
be moderate in intensity for the most part. Mean temperatures are
generally expected to trend below average across much of the 
Interior and the North Slope over much the forecast period.

Looking ahead to the weekend into early next week, a very stormy 
and unsettled weather pattern will likely work to the Aleutians
and Bering Sea. A deep and powerful low pressure system is 
expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded into the
western Bering Sea. A stronger and impactful extratropcial low 
tracking from the northwest Pacific is then slated to lift ahead 
of the western Bering Sea low up through the Aleutians into the 
Bering Sea this weekend. This latter deep system has some energy 
and long fetch moisture connections to current west-Pacific 
Typhoon Fung- Wong. This will likely result in strong winds, heavy
rains, and high seas through the Aleutians/Bering Sea and could 
lead into later weekend to early next week impacts into Southwest 
Alaska along with subsequent unsettling downstream translation of 
system energies and moderate precipitation/winds through the 
Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska tier.

Campbell/Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html