Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
635 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 12Z Thu 19 Feb 2026 - 12Z Mon 23 Feb 2026

...Much colder than average temperatures and gap winds likely for
Friday into next weekend...


...Overview...

As the medium range period begins Thursday, troughing will be in 
place atop much of Alaska promoting some light snow. For Friday 
into next weekend, combining energies will develop an upper low in
the northeast Pacific while amplified Pacific ridging builds over
the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula into the Bering Sea. This pattern 
with mean northerly flow should lead to drier and colder 
conditions across the state with arctic high pressure in place at 
the surface. This will also result in a tight pressure gradient 
along the southern coast and produce gap winds concerns.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Model guidance is in better than average agreement with the 
pattern described above during the early-mid part of the forecast.
Troughing is forecast to slowly traverse the Bering Strait and 
dig energy across the Mainland Thursday-Friday while carrying a 
low pressure/frontal system. Models show good consensus at least 
on the medium to large scales for this evolution. This troughing 
should then combine with persistent arctic energy feeding 
southward to produce upper low development in the northeast 
Pacific late week lingering into next weekend. Surface low 
pressure will be common underneath this upper low, though the 
details of depth and location of the surface low(s) at any 
particular time are a bit uncertain. This all occurs as there is 
good agreement for upper ridging to build across the Bering Sea 
and vicinity. Arctic high pressure settles into the Mainland over 
the weekend, producing a strong pressure gradient with wind 
concerns.

By early next week, larger model differences arise with possible 
shortwaves rounding the northern side of the ridge and suppressing
it, affecting at least the northwestern Mainland. Most models 
show this to some extent by next Sunday-Monday, with the main 
outlier being the 12Z ECMWF that maintains ridging, while even the
EC-based AIFS indicates troughing. Will continue to monitor but 
leaned away from the 12Z ECMWF for now. 

The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/AIFS 
for the early part of the forecast, with some ensemble mean 
inclusion for the latter part of the period and less 12Z ECMWF. 


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Light snow is forecast to spread across much of the Mainland into
Thursday as the upper trough and surface frontal system moves 
through, with a drying trend into Friday. Southeast Alaska can 
expect light to locally moderate precipitation Thursday and Friday
before becoming more limited over the weekend. Meanwhile, the 
Aleutians may see a few rounds of rain and gusty winds on the 
western side of the upper ridge axis. Northwestern parts of the 
Mainland could see snow return over the weekend as energy aloft 
may poke in. Though there is uncertainty, precipitation chances 
currently look to expand slowly east and south into early next 
week.

Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be above average in the 
North Slope but close to average elsewhere across the state. But 
by Friday into the weekend, colder than average temperatures will 
prevail as northerly flow is in place aloft and arctic high 
pressure should settle in at the surface. Minimum temperatures are
expected to be in the -30s for much of the Interior. Western 
parts of the state may see temperatures gradually moderating and 
becoming above average into the weekend and early next week, while
eastern areas remain cold. 

The cold surface high over the Mainland and low pressure in the 
northeast Pacific will also produce a tight pressure gradient 
across the southern coast, leading to gap wind concerns. Winds are
forecast to be strongest on either side of Kodiak Island 
including Cook Inlet late Thursday into Friday, gradually 
weakening Saturday. Farther east, gap winds are likely to affect 
parts of Southeast Alaska including Dangerous River and 
potentially Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet. Freezing spray with these 
winds is a potential hazard to ships in the vicinity.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html