Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
634 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 23 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 27 Oct 2025


...Heavy rain and gusty winds likely for the Southeast this week...

...Overview...

An elongated upper low (with multiple vortices) will be stationed
over the region for much of the period with an axis from eastern 
Russia, over the Mainland, and the Gulf. The weather across Alaska
during the extended range period (Thursday-Monday) will be driven
by one main surface low which meanders in the Gulf for several 
days. This will a generally wet period for the Southeast with 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The guidance is in relatively good agreement with the overall 
large scale upper pattern, but there remains plenty of uncertainty
in the details. On Thursday, one surface low will be weakening 
near the Southern Coast as another one deepens in the Gulf, with 
guidance suggesting central low pressure possibly down into the 
950s. There remains some variability with exact low placement 
still in the Gulf, but very consistent agreement on its presence 
and track. With a blocky ridge over Canada, this low should 
meander in the Gulf through the rest of the period, but weaken 
with time. Farther West, there is more uncertainty in the track 
and strength of another likely weak shortwave/surface low crossing
from the western Bering Sea to the Aleutians. The WPC progs today
used a blend of the deterministic guidance through Day 6, with 
increasing weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the 
blend by Days 7 and 8 to account for some greater uncertainty. 
This maintained good agreement with yesterdays forecast as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

After a wet short range period as well, another round of heavy 
precipitation (with mountain snows) will move into the Panhandle 
Wednesday-Friday. The heaviest rainfall should come to an end by 
the weekend but into early next week will continue to be wet for 
especially the Southeast as the low meanders in the Gulf. Guidance
is suggesting multi- day rainfall totals of several inches in 
some locations across the Panhandle. Gusty winds will also 
accompany this system mid to later in the week, with a high wind 
area added today to parts of the Panhandle for Thursday. The 
heaviest winds (and consequently waves) will be offshore though, 
but this will create a significant maritime threat. Some moderate 
gap winds may be present in favorable locations on the backside of
this low too. Elsewhere across Alaska, the southern coast, 
Aleutians, and parts of the Mainland may remain generally 
unsettled and showery underneath the upper low, but nothing 
hazardous. Southwest and southern Alaska should be near or below 
normal the entire period underneath the upper low. Parts of the 
Southeast may be warm on Thursday ahead of the main low, but will 
trend colder. Eastern and central Alaska and the North Slope look 
to be above normal with influence from the upper ridge and 
generally southerly flow.


Santorelli




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html