Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024 - 12Z Fri May 03 2024


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF model solutions seem best clustered with
ensemble means valid for next week. A blended solution with
emphasis shifting from the models to the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble means offers reasonable system detail, along with
manually applied adjustments, in a complex pattern as
predictability lowers from above average to near normal values.
WPC product continuity is reasonably maintained in this fashion,
albeit with a trend toward deeper Aleutian lows given pattern
history and potentially quite favorable upper support.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Several leading, but generally weak low pressure frontal systems
are slated to work into the Gulf of Alaska next week. These may
act to focus areas of modest maritime winds/waves/rainfall that
could clip southern tier coastal areas, albeit in an overall
benign weather pattern. In this pattern, above normal temperatures
are expected for much of the state overtop into the beginning of
May with the highest anomalies likely positioned over the
Interior. To the north of a front settling over the north-central
mainland, cold high pressure over the Arctic may keep temperatures
near to somewhat below normal, especially across the North Slope
and guidance shows some spotty/modest precipitation. Locations
near the Southcentral coast and northern Panhandle may also see
near or slightly below normal readings.

Meanwhile, guidance signals are growing for development of much
deeper low pressure systems to mainly affect the Aleutians and
Bering Sea early next week and into later next week. These offer
potentially hazardous multi-day periods with enhanced wind
flow/waves and rainfall to monitor. Slow eastward progressions of
these organized systems within the amplified pattern may lead to
enhanced lead frontal inflow and precipitation into west/southwest
Alaska and downstream with re-developments into the Alaska
Peninsula/Kodiak Island and then SouthCentral Alaska late next
week.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html