Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
625 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 14 Nov 2025 - 12Z Tue 18 Nov 2025


...Powerhouse Storm to Impact Aleutians/Bering/Southwest Alaska...


...Synoptic Overview...

Storm systems will be mainly confined to maritime areas and the 
southern/southeast coastal tier into later week. In this flow a 
low pressure system will approach the southern Alaska Peninsula 
and Kodiak Island towards Friday with terrain enhanced rains and 
mountain snows into the weekend. Then, the signal is growing for 
the track of a much stronger storm to impact the Aleutians and the
Bering Sea by this weekend before affecting Southwest Alaska.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Latest guidance shows stormy flow for portions of Alaska and
vicinity through medium range time scales. Expect a cooled
Interior/North Slope under a mean upper trough, albeit with
limited QPF. Mid-later week storm energies are slated to work into
the Gulf of Alaska and focus periods of enhanced winds/waves and
precipitation into Southern to Southeast Alaska. Upstream, a deep
extratropical low with energy and moisture connection to current
West Pacific Typhoon Fung-Wong looks to focus impacts into the
Aleutians/southern Bering Sea into this weekend and may affect 
Southwest Alaska and onward late weekend into early next week. 
Overall, favor a blend a best clustered guidance of the 12 UTC 
ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles. WPC product continuity is good.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern 
coastal areas of the state Friday into Saturday as an emerging 
Gulf of Alaska low enhances onshore flow, but it mainly appears to
be moderate in intensity for the most part. Mean temperatures are
generally expected to trend below average across much of the 
Interior and the North Slope over much the forecast period.

Looking ahead to the weekend into early next week, a very stormy 
and unsettled weather pattern will likely work to the Aleutians
and Bering Sea. A deep and powerful low pressure system is 
expected to move off eastern Siberia and become occluded into the
western Bering Sea. A stronger and impactful extratropcial low 
tracking from the northwest Pacific is then slated to lift ahead 
of the western Bering Sea low up through the Aleutians into the 
Bering Sea this weekend. This latter deep system has some energy 
and long fetch moisture connections to current west-Pacific 
Typhoon Fung- Wong. This will likely result in strong winds, heavy
rains, and high seas through the Aleutians/Bering Sea and could 
lead into later weekend to early next week impacts into Southwest 
Alaska along with subsequent unsettling downstream translation of 
system energies and moderate precipitation/winds through the 
Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska tier.

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html