Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
547 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 14 Dec 2025 - 12Z Thu 18 Dec 2025

...Gusty gap winds expected this weekend and into next week for 
the Southern Coast region, with an anomalously cold airmass in 
place across much of Alaska...


...Overview...

The large scale pattern over Alaska during the upcoming medium 
range period will be rather stagnant as an omega block sets up 
over the region. This is anchored by a mid-upper level high over 
the Bering Sea, with height anomalies over 3 standard deviations 
above normal. This will maintain troughing over eastern Alaska 
into the Gulf, with a variety of shortwaves rotating into the 
trough to maintain it through the period. Moisture will funnel 
into Southeast Alaska for the weekend into Monday associated with 
a cold front with northerly flow on the backside of a Gulf low 
leading to strong gap winds for the weekend into early next week. 
The deep troughing over Alaska will keep temperatures well below 
normal across much of the state well into next week, with 
potential for hazardously cold temperatures for parts of the 
Interior. 


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement on the 
overall pattern through much of the period. The upper high will 
meander over the Bering Sea the entire period. To the east, deep 
troughing will hold over eastern Alaska, with a broad closed low 
in the Gulf. Energy and shortwaves dropping south on the eastern 
side of the ridge continue to show some uncertainty in the 
strength and timing, but should act to reinforce the 
troughing/upper low over the Gulf with time. This also leads to 
late period uncertainty on the exact positioning of the upper high
over the Bering and how quickly the low over the Gulf will weaken
and shift east. The WPC forecast used a general deterministic 
model blend for the first half of the period, with more weighting 
towards the ECMWF and GFS. Incorporated increasing amounts of the 
ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by the end of the 
forecast period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Mean low pressure for the Gulf over the weekend and into early 
next week should lead to moist southwesterly flow into Southeast 
Alaska/the Panhandle for some precipitation. Cold temperatures in 
place will mean most of this precipitation falls as snow, and 
moderate snow totals are likely on Sunday and Monday especially. 
Behind the surface low, strong gap winds in the favorable 
locations along the Alaska Peninsula and Southern Coast are likely
given the tight pressure gradient. Favorable gap flow is also 
likely for parts of the northern Panhandle, Yakutat, and nearby 
channels. High wind areas remain in place on the Day 3-7 Hazards 
product.

Temperatures for much of Alaska will be very cold the entire 
period, with anomalies 20-40 degrees below normal expected. This 
could mean daily min temperatures as low as -50 for parts of the 
eastern Interior, and near or below zero for southern locations. A
hazardous cold area was introduced on the hazards chart for today
valid for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Southern parts of the 
Panhandle may not be as anomalous as the rest of the state due to 
relatively warmer moist inflow. And across the North Slope, 
temperatures should be near or above normal.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html