Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
700 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 11 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 15 Nov 2025

...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the 
Aleutians...


...Overview...

Periods of rain and mountain snows will continue for the 
Panhandle in the wake of one system and another approaches in the
Gulf. A strong low looks to impact the western Aleutians Tuesday-
Wednesday high winds and then will continue into the Gulf. Another
broad, deep low will track east across the Bering toward the far
western reaches of the state by the end of the extended period
which may potentially usher in another round of precipitation and
high winds.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Aside from decent clustering of the overall pattern initially,
models begin to increase spread by early Wednesday leaving
confidence on timing, location and potential impacts fair at best.
The biggest offender is with the closed upper low that is expected
to migrate east through the Bering sending low pressure systems
east toward the western part of the state and the Gulf. The CMC is
much more progressive while the EC lags behind an positioned
several hundred miles to the south/west in the North Pacific. As
such, equal parts of the the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET were used as a
starting point for Day 4 and for Day 5 and beyond the ensemble
means were weighting from 20 to 60% in order to dampen the spread
in the guidance.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in 
the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow 
for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy 
precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the 
Panhandle. The moisture being transported with be 2-3 standard
deviations above normal and will certainly aid in the enhancement
of rainfall and mountain snows across the southern part of the
Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards 
the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland, light snow showers 
are possible across the Mainland. On the backside of the second 
low pressure system, gap winds may be possible and could focus 
west and east of Kodiak Island. These should generally stay below 
thresholds for a High Winds hazard. 

The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should 
come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short 
range period later this week. The low generally looks to weaken 
as it moves east Sunday into early next week, so wind speeds 
should decrease. Modest precipitation is forecast to move into 
Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, depending on the 
low track and timing. Gusty winds and light precipitation may 
impact parts of Western Alaska too. The next low will bring 
another round of precipitation and high wind potential to parts of
the Aleutians by early next week.

Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range 
period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures
should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal 
temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in 
magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely
to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). 

Campbell



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html