Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
525 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 28 Nov 2025 - 12Z Tue 02 Dec 2025

...Overview...

The upper level pattern will remain amplified through the weekend
into early next week, with mean troughing/low pressure extending
across the Bering Sea and Aleutians and strong ridging over 
eastern Alaska and western Canada. Several shortwaves pivoting 
around the trough/low will steer surface low pressure systems 
towards the Aleutians and southern Mainland. Precipitation chances
will persist for the southern half of the state through the 
period, with chances for heavy precipitation along the coast 
Saturday through Monday.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Overall, there is good agreement amongst the ensembles and most 
of the deterministic models. The GFS seems to be an outlier, 
bringing surface lows further north into the Bering while the 
ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET keep the lows south of the Aleutians. The 
northward solution from the GFS is not out of the realm of 
possibility, but appears unlikely. Therefore, the influence of the
GFS was limited in WPC's model blend, instead favoring the ECMWF 
and CMC solutions. Model spread increases significantly near the 
end of the period, which is expected, and ensemble means from the 
ECENS, CMCE, and GEFS were added in increasing amounts to smooth 
out model differences. 


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A series of low pressure systems will bring unsettled weather from
the central Aleutians through the southern Mainland and Southeast
Alaska this weekend and early next week. Strong onshore flow 
ahead of one of the systems will result in a period of heavy 
precipitation Saturday through Monday, initially beginning along 
the southern coast then expanding towards Southeast Alaska. 
Precipitation chances will also spread into the interior and 
southwestern Alaska this weekend, resulting in show showers and 
periods of mixed/icy precipitation. 

Temperatures are expected trend well above average this weekend
into early next week due to the influence of strong ridging to 
the east and prolonged southerly flow. Temperature anomalies are
forecast to be 10-20+ degrees above normal, and high temperatures
will likely rise above freezing for the Aleutians, southern 
Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. 


Dolan


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html