Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
524 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 05 Dec 2025 - 12Z Tue 09 Dec 2025


...Overview...

A closed low over the eastern Aleutians/AkPen will begin phasing
with energy from a northern stream trough propagating across
northern Alaska into the Canadian Yukon by Friday. Multiple 
shortwaves will shed from a deep mid-level low over Eastern 
Russia/Kamchatka beginning late Friday and merge with the newly 
developing closed low over Southern Alaska this weekend. This 
additional phasing will produce significant amplification along 
the Gulf Coast into early next week. Meanwhile, Siberian high 
pressure will persist and expand into the Bering Strait and parts 
of the Seward Peninsula/northwestern Alaska. 


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The Euro and GFS suites tended to capture the overall synoptic
evolution of the mid-level pattern reasonably well for the medium
range period. Therefore, they were favored in the multi-model
blend throughout the forecast period. The deterministic Canadian
model did not feature in any of the blends due to notable
inconsistencies with the Euro/GFS clustered solutions. The GEFS
and CMCE develop a lot of spread with respect to the timing of the
upper trough over the western/Gulf Coasts this weekend. There's
uncertainty on where exactly along the Gulf Coast a potentially 
impactful mid-level low and associated surface wave will set up 
late this weekend into next week.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Multiple waves of surface low pressure will produce rain and 
mountain snow over much of the Gulf Coast through this weekend.
The amplifying upper trough will also generate strong/gusty winds
across the southern tier of the state. Where this weekend/early 
next week's low sets up will determine the heavy precipitation 
potential along the Gulf Coast.

High pressure from eastern Siberia to the North Slope will 
promote below average temperatures for those areas. Temperatures 
over portions of the Interior/Yukon Flats could drop well below 
average (-30F - -40F) this Friday night into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, a relatively tranquil/average forecast period for the state.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html