Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
614 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 25 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 29 Nov 2025

...Overview...

A blocky pattern across the mainland at the beginning of the 
period will give way to shortwave energy cutting across the 
interior from East to West mid-to-late next week and settling 
over the Bering Sea by next weekend. Meanwhile, climatological 
troughing will persist throughout the Aleutians next week, with 
amplification occurring late next week into the weekend. An 
anomalous ridge will develop over the mainland and Southeast AK 
next weekend.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A general model blend consisting of the deterministic
GFS/ECMWF/CMC was used along with the GEFS mean on day 4. The 
deterministic Euro was gradually decreased in weighting before 
complete removal from the blend by day 5. This is because it is a 
clear outlier with respect to the shortwave energy traversing the 
mainland mid-to-late next week, as it overamplifies the 
disturbance on day 6. The Canadian and GFS suites cluster well 
during the medium range period, so they were favored in the blend.
The ensemble means had a reasonable amount of spread as well. The
Euro mean was introduced to the blend on day 7 and maintained through
day 8.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Persistent troughing across the Gulf Coast will promote light rain
and mountain snow shower activity next week. Warm air advection 
from the Gulf will support above average temperatures along the 
southern mainland coast and work its way inland by next weekend 
beneath anomalous high pressure. High winds are possible for the 
Aleutians late next week as a deep low pressure system enters the 
region. This East Pacific system will carry substantial moisture 
with it and could produce atmospheric river conditions from the 
AKPen to the southern mainland coast with potential for moisture 
to penetrate into Southcentral Alaska. There's enough uncertainty 
in this day 8 forecast to preclude any hazard areas at this time.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html