Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service College Park MD
557 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 13 Jul 2025 - 12Z Thu 17 Jul 2025


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Favored a blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from the 12
UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models valid for Sunday/Monday in a
generally blocky pattern with above normal predictability and WPC
product continuity. Applied manual adjustments to this blend to 
develop a deeper maritime surface low to the southeast of the 
eastern Aleutians into early next week considering favorable 
closed low upper support in the models. Opted to transition on 
Tuesday to best clustered guidance from ECMWF/Canadian ensemble 
means by next midweek amid growing forecast spread/uncertainty.

...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The weather pattern from the weekend into early next week will be
highlighted by closed upper lows both over the northern Bering 
Sea and also to the southeast of the eastern Aleutians, with 
progression slowed with development of an upper ridge up through 
the mainland. This ridge will support a period with very warm 
temps up through the 70s and for some spots 80F up through the 
Interior and into the North Slope, but slow pattern/system 
progression may moderate upper ridging and warmth next week.

Meanwhile to the south, the series of impulses and lows moving 
over the Gulf of Alaska will bring some modest rain chances into 
southern and southeast Alaska, and more widespread with time next
week for the Alaska Range and northward over the Mainland as upper
ridging slowly erodes. Organized rain chances also working across
the Bering Sea and Aleutians may become more directed into the 
western mainland and Southwest Alaska into mid-later next week.

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html