Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
739 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025


Valid 12Z Sat 28 Jun 2025 - 12Z Wed 02 Jul 2025


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite is in reasonably good agreement for
the beginning of the period Saturday, but the Canadian global model
begins to differ by Sunday across the Bering Sea region, and this
becomes even more apparent going into early next week by holding
onto a much stronger ridge. The GFS also differs by this time with
a stronger low crossing the southern Bering Sea region, and
overall forecast confidence drops to below average by Monday and
beyond. Much of this uncertainty is related to the future track of
what is now Tropical Depression Sepat, and how it will eventually
affect the Alaska domain. The ensemble means were increased to
about half by next Wednesday, and the Canadian model was not
favored for this forecast package given the differences noted
earlier in the forecast period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A weakening lower-level front across northern Alaska may continue
to focus scattered showers and a few storms across the Brooks 
Range into later this week and Saturday. Moderate to locally heavy
showers will be possible across the Interior owing to a lingering
Southwest Alaska upper trough/low this weekend and subsequent 
shortwaves going into next week around the northern periphery of 
a main Gulf low position. This rainfall may prove helpful to 
mitigate some of the ongoing wildfire risk over the Interior, but
not enough to fully reduce the threat. Meanwhile, energy transfer
from the southern Bering Sea to the northern Gulf of Alaska will 
also favor development of enhanced rain chances from west to east 
over the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island into Southcentral then 
Southeast Alaska as low pressure waves/triple-point lows develop
over the Gulf of Alaska.

Upstream, moderate extra-tropical system development and track 
into an unsettled Bering Sea this weekend is associated with 
T.D. Sepat now over the western Pacific to the southeast of 
Japan. This system may result in deepened moisture with flow 
slated to affect the Aleutians and possibly Southwest 
Alaska/Alaska Peninsula before with much uncertainty downstream 
into the Gulf of Alaska given the current larger scale pattern.

Hamrick/Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html