Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
739 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 12Z Thu 14 May 2026 - 12Z Mon 18 May 2026


...General Overview...

A weakening surface low over the northern Gulf by Thursday will
lead to an abatement in the precipitation for southern Alaska to
close out the work week. A potentially stronger low pressure
system approaches the Gulf by Saturday with another round of rain
and mountain snow likely for the weekend from the Alaska Peninsula
to the Prince William Sound. Meanwhile, a stationary front will
remained draped near the Brooks Range, with much colder
temperatures across the North Slope and Arctic Coast, and
pleasantly mild for most of the Interior.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite features average synoptic scale 
agreement across the Alaska domain on Thursday, although 
differences are already becoming apparent across the North Pacific
by this time. A nearly equal mix of the deterministic and 
ensemble means were used for the end of the week. Model 
differences become more pronounced going into the weekend across 
the North Pacific, with high ensemble spread with the second low 
approaching the Alaska Peninsula, but slightly better agreement
compared to yesterday. The CMC remains most out of phase with the
timing of shortwave energy, so this model was not used beyond 
Friday. Additional changes to the forecast are very likely in the
days ahead as models get a better depiction of the overall 
pattern. The ensemble means were increased to 60% of the forecast
blend by next weekend given the deterministic and AIFS model
differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Rainfall and mountain snow is expected to become lighter by the
start of this forecast period as the moisture fetch from the
weakening Gulf low abates, with more scattered coverage expected
going through Friday. There will likely be an increase in
precipitation in association with the next low crossing south of
the Aleutians, starting with the eastern Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula Friday night into Saturday, and then reaching the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound region by early Sunday. If
model trends continue heavier in future runs, a heavy
precipitation area may eventually be needed on the medium range
hazards graphic for that time period.

Temperatures are expected to be pleasant across most of the
Interior with highs generally from near 50 to the middle 60s 
south of the Brooks Range, and in the 50s for the greater 
Anchorage area, with a gradual warming trend by the end of the
forecast period. It will still remain cold north of the Brooks 
Range with highs ranging from the 20s near the Arctic Coast to the
30s for the North Slope.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html