Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
614 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Valid 12Z Thu 08 Jan 2026 - 12Z Mon 12 Jan 2026

...Frigid cold resurges over the mainland this weekend...

...Heavy snow and high winds for south-central and southeast 
portions of the state as a large and potentially intense deep 
layer cyclone moves into the Aleutians...


...General Overview...

An upper-ridge degrades over the AkPen, while a deep cyclone 
moves in from the southern Aleutians. This system then phases with
a northern stream trough over the mainland this weekend. Upper
ridging builds over the western Bering Sea late this week and into
the weekend.

...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A general model blend consisting of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and
available ensemble mean guidance were used on day 4 with higher
weighting placed on the deterministic Euro and Canadian. The Euro
and Canadian are favored on day 5 due to a middle of the pack
solution regarding the evolving trough pattern over the
Aleutians/Gulf Coast. The Euro suite and Canadian ensemble mean
were utilized on day 6, followed by an ensemble mean-centric blend
on days 7 and 8.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A series of deep surface low pressure systems will produce heavy
snow, coastal rain and strong winds along the southern mainland
and southeast coast beginning mid-week and continuing through 
next weekend. Anomalous cold, which will continue to impact much 
of the mainland through early this week, will moderate by mid-week
before a resurgence of cold air returns next weekend. 

The first wave of low pressure will bring rain and snow to the 
panhandle, while generating strong gap winds over portions of Cook
Inlet and western Kodiak Island through Wednesday. The following 
wave will arrive over the eastern Aleutians/AkPen on Friday night
and generate additional impactful winds as well as heavy mountain
snow and coastal/low elevation rain along the southern coast 
through Saturday. Another system brings yet another round of
rain/snow to the southeast coast next Sunday night into Monday.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html