Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 04 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 07 2019 - 12Z Tue Jun 11 2019 ...Excessive Rain and Flash Flood/Flooding Risk to Spread from the Mid-Lower Mississippi and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys to the south-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... ...Guidance/Predictability and Weather/Hazards Highlights... Guidance agrees an amplified upper-level trough/height falls and surface low in split southern stream flow tracks from the south-central Plains to the Mid-South and southern Appalachians. Deep moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic feed into the system to fuel a threat of heavy rain and flash flooding/flooding. There is a strong signal for a slow spread of activity Friday-Tuesday from the Mid-Lower Mississippi and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys to the south-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Cumulative WPC day 4-7 2-5" mean rainfall amounts imply higher but less predictable local amounts with cell training. Deepest tropical moisture is linked to an uncertain southwest Gulf of Mexico disturbance monitored by NHC. Meanwhile, guidance shows development of a significant/anomalous cooling and unsettling upper trough from northern stream flow to evolve from the Northwest/West to the north-central U.S. late week to early next week. Guidance is converging on a more clustered forecast, bolstering confidence in widespread moderate to terrain enhanced precipitation. This includes snows for northern Rockies higher elevations of per WPC medium range winter weather outlook probabilities. Overall, the WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite of the 18 UTC GFS/GEFS and 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean along with the National Blend of Models. This solution maintains excellent WPC continuity. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml